Irish presidency turns EU budget talks into leaders’ trade-off over security, Ukraine and legacy funds
Council of the European Union
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Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2028-2034 - Negotiating Box
Council of the European Union
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The EU's long-term budget for 2028–2034
Council of the European Union Newsroom
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Press conference by the Irish EU Presidency on the revised negotiating box for the EU’s next MFF
Untracked bias
50% of tracked sources are High factuality
The Irish Times
Analysis: Government in line for a kicking from all sides after publishing EU budget
Voice of Emirates
Ireland proposes cutting the EU budget by 8%—a spending reduction of €141 billion
La Vanguardia
Irlanda recorta en un 8% el futuro presupuesto de la UE pero mantiene la cohesión
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€1.622tn ceiling
The Irish presidency’s negotiating box sets the 2028-2034 MFF commitment ceiling at €1.622 trillion in 2025 prices.
Ukraine reserve
The draft proposes a Ukraine Reserve of up to €88.869 billion for accession, reconstruction and related support.
CAP minimum
The text includes at least €261.013 billion for Common Agricultural Policy income support interventions.
The Irish presidency has shifted talks on the EU’s next long-term budget from a broad debate over priorities to a leaders-level negotiation over numbers, flexibility and political red lines. In a revised Council negotiating box dated October 10, it sets a €1.622 trillion commitment ceiling for the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework.1
The text, prepared days before the October 15-16 European Council discussion, tests whether governments can reconcile Europe’s newer demands — defence readiness, Ukraine support, border management and industrial competitiveness — with the long-standing claims of cohesion policy and the Common Agricultural Policy. The Council says Ireland’s third negotiating box, including figures, is intended to facilitate EU leaders’ discussions ahead of the October European Council and keep open the objective of an agreement before the end of 2026.2
That timetable matters. A political deal in 2026 would leave 2027 for adoption of the MFF regulation, sectoral programmes and the own-resources decision before the new budget period starts on January 1, 2028.2 But the October 10 text also shows why the final stretch will be difficult. Almost every compromise device in the draft — more flexibility, larger security cushions, Ukraine funding outside ceilings and consolidated national plans — shifts power or money in ways that affect national capitals, regions, farmers, the European Parliament and net contributors.
The Irish package lowers the political temperature for budget hawks by proposing cuts of about €141 billion compared with the Commission’s proposal, according to Brussels reporting, while keeping the overall MFF volume at €1.622 trillion in 2025 prices.4 The negotiating box sets commitment appropriations at €1,622,011 million and payment appropriations at €1,654,712 million, with all figures in constant 2025 prices unless otherwise specified.1
The move is a classic MFF presidency maneuver: lower the headline enough to make negotiations credible for fiscally cautious governments, while preserving enough money and flexibility for priorities most leaders say the EU can no longer avoid. Irish officials have presented the text as a compromise capable of protecting cohesion and agriculture while investing in competitiveness, research, innovation, security and defence.35
Yet the cut also sharpens the allocation question. The budget is no longer framed simply as whether the EU should spend more on defence, Ukraine or industrial policy. It is now a negotiation over where those priorities sit, who controls the flexibility to move money and how much protection traditional beneficiaries receive when pressures change over seven years.
The draft reduces the MFF architecture to four headings: cohesion and agriculture; competitiveness, prosperity and security; Global Europe; and administration.1 The largest heading, covering economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture, rural and maritime prosperity and security, would receive €914.179 billion in commitments.1 Competitiveness, prosperity and security would receive €455.6 billion; Global Europe would receive €156.936 billion; and administration would receive €95.296 billion.1
This structure is politically consequential. The Council’s policy page describes the next budget as a redesign meant to address security, defence, competitiveness, migration, energy and climate resilience while preserving agriculture and cohesion.2 By grouping cohesion, CAP, fisheries, migration, internal security and some defence-related objectives under one large heading, the negotiating box makes national planning more integrated — but also potentially more contested.
Under the proposed National and Regional Partnership Plans, member states would prepare one comprehensive plan covering EU funds under shared management, replacing separate tracks for cohesion, agriculture, fisheries, migration and security.2 The Irish text assigns €746.734 billion to the broad fund for cohesion, agriculture, rural, fisheries, maritime, prosperity and security, including €705.25 billion for national and regional plans.1 That consolidation offers administrative simplification and greater national ownership, but it also raises a governance question for regions and sectors used to more ring-fenced programmes.
The draft’s defence language is deliberately spread across the package rather than confined to a single military line. The horizontal section says Europe must take responsibility for its own security through stronger defence capabilities, protection of borders and values, and migration management.1 It also provides for support to external border regions, including those bordering Russia, Belarus or Ukraine, to enhance defence readiness, preparedness, resilience and security.1
The most visible defence-related allocation sits in the European Competitiveness Fund. The fund would receive an indicative €180.441 billion, of which €96.418 billion is allocated to resilience and security, defence industry and space.1 The Council’s policy page says the fund brings together 14 existing programmes under one rulebook and one application gateway, covering areas from clean transition and digital leadership to defence and space.2
This is the core of the new budget politics. Defence readiness is treated as part of industrial competitiveness, regional resilience, border security and infrastructure planning. That framing may help build a broader coalition for security spending, but it also risks disputes over whether money labelled as competitiveness or cohesion is being redirected toward defence priorities.
The negotiating box tries to maintain Ukraine support without forcing it entirely into the main MFF trade-off. For 2028-2034, it proposes a Ukraine Reserve of up to €88.869 billion, including support financed over and above MFF ceilings and loan support guaranteed by headroom.1 It also provides for a budgetary guarantee of up to €42.658 billion and says additional Ukraine funding may be prioritised from Global Europe pillars and the emerging challenges cushion.1
This structure reflects the political reality that Ukraine is both a long-term strategic commitment and a potential source of budget fatigue. Keeping parts of the support outside ceilings can protect other external-action lines, but it also increases the importance of own-resources headroom, guarantees and Council control. The draft explicitly says the Council will remain closely involved in the governance of support for Ukraine.1
For external action more broadly, the Global Europe heading would have a €156.936 billion ceiling, while the Global Europe Instrument would receive an indicative €148.984 billion. That includes geographic and global pillars, a €9.934 billion emerging challenges cushion and a current-price indicative €25 billion for humanitarian aid.1 Reports noted that the Irish text also reduces Global Europe compared with earlier ambitions, adding to concerns among development and external-action constituencies.49
Agriculture remains one of the most politically sensitive parts of the package. The Irish presidency has argued that the proposal protects CAP and cohesion while allowing investment in newer priorities.5 The text provides a minimum €261.013 billion for CAP income support interventions and says the CAP regulation will ensure a strong and integrated CAP under the national and regional partnership plans.1
But protection is not the same as the status quo. CAP would be embedded in broader national and regional plans, with rules on average aid per hectare, possible degressivity for larger area-based income support, and voluntary capping of total annual area-based income support at €300,000.1 Farm groups and the European Parliament’s agriculture rapporteur reacted critically, warning that the draft did not provide sufficient safeguards for CAP autonomy and funding visibility.6
That dispute goes beyond farm policy. If agriculture can be integrated into a larger national plan, so can other policy areas. For supporters, this is how the EU budget becomes more strategic and performance-based. For critics, it risks making traditional entitlements more vulnerable to annual political reprioritisation, national discretion and competition from security or migration objectives.
The European Parliament is not a bystander. The Council will ultimately need unanimity among member states for the MFF regulation and Parliament’s consent.2 Lead MEPs on the long-term budget rejected the Irish presidency’s negotiating box, citing concerns across defence, security, competitiveness, agriculture, regions and own resources.8
That reaction matters because the Irish strategy depends on sequencing: first narrow the landing zone among leaders, then turn the political agreement into legislation in 2027. If Parliament views the Council landing zone as too small, too nationally controlled or too weak on own resources, the end-2026 deadline could still produce only a fragile Council-side deal.
Own resources are another fault line. Euronews reported that Ireland’s compromise included an annual own-resources package of around €55 billion, below the Commission’s proposed additional revenue effort, as part of the broader attempt to appease frugal governments.4 The Council page notes that the Commission originally proposed new revenue sources designed to generate €58.2 billion per year in 2025 prices, including emissions trading, the carbon border adjustment mechanism, tobacco excise, electronic waste and a corporate resource.2
The October European Council is not expected to close the MFF. The negotiating box itself stresses that it is not binding on delegations and that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.1 Its function is to identify the political questions leaders must settle.
Those questions are now clearer. Net contributors will test whether the €1.622 trillion ceiling is low enough. Cohesion countries will test whether national and regional allocations remain predictable. Farm interests will test whether CAP safeguards are credible. Security-focused governments will test whether defence and border funding can move quickly. Ukraine’s supporters will test whether the reserve is sufficiently insulated from annual budget fights. Parliament will test whether the Council’s flexibility mechanisms weaken democratic scrutiny.
Ireland’s immediate task is to keep all of those constituencies inside the same negotiation. The October 10 box does that by giving each side something to point to: a lower headline for frugal states, minimums for CAP and less-developed regions, a large competitiveness and defence-industrial envelope, Ukraine support outside the main ceiling, and a simplified structure that promises faster delivery. It also gives each side something to contest.
That is why the text is a turning point. The EU budget debate has moved from what the Union should prioritise to the more difficult question of what leaders are prepared to trade to fund it.
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Multiannual Financial Framework
The EU’s seven-year budget plan, setting spending ceilings and priorities for programmes across the Union.
Negotiating box
A Council presidency document that gathers the most politically sensitive choices in MFF talks, often including figures as negotiations advance.
Own resources
The revenue sources used to finance the EU budget, including national contributions and proposed EU-level revenues.
National and Regional Partnership Plans
Proposed single national plans that would bring together funding streams such as cohesion, agriculture, fisheries, migration and security under shared management.
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