Meloni wins electoral-law vote, but court fight may shape Italy’s next campaign

What the law changes

The overhaul abolishes Italy’s existing mixed electoral system, under which roughly two-thirds of lawmakers were elected by proportional representation and the rest through first-past-the-post constituencies.³ In its place, the law creates a fully proportional system with a decisive corrective: a seat bonus that guarantees a parliamentary majority to a coalition that wins more than 42% of the vote.³

The bonus applies to pre-election alliances, not post-election bargains. To qualify, parties must agree in advance on a common platform and a named candidate for prime minister.¹⁷ If no coalition reaches the threshold, or if results in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate do not align, the allocation reverts to a purely proportional outcome. That could still leave a fragmented parliament despite the reform’s stated stabilising purpose.⁷

El País reported that the majority package would amount to 70 additional seats in the Chamber and 35 in the Senate for the coalition surpassing 42%.⁴ The reform also introduces voter preferences for candidates on party lists while keeping the top name effectively blocked, a compromise that followed tensions within the governing coalition over how much control party leaders should retain over who enters parliament.³⁷

Meloni’s stability argument

Meloni has framed the law as an answer to Italy’s chronic governmental instability. After the vote, Reuters reported that she said the rules were designed to promote “stability” and parliamentary cohesion, adding that whoever wins must be able to govern.³ Her allies say the reform pushes parties to form transparent alliances before elections and reduces the post-election bargaining that has often produced technocratic or grand-coalition governments.¹⁷

That argument lands in a system where instability is not an abstract charge. Italy has had frequent government changes throughout the postwar period, and Meloni’s administration has already stood out for its longevity: AP reported that her coalition recently celebrated its record as Italy’s longest-serving government since World War II.¹

For the right, the strategic appeal is clear. A coalition that holds together and clears 42% could convert a plurality into governing control. That could help Meloni avoid the parliamentary ambiguity that proportional systems often create, while forcing rivals to settle leadership and policy differences before voters go to the polls.

Why the opposition says it is unconstitutional

The centre-left opposition calls the reform a “legge truffa,” or scam law, arguing that it is less a neutral stability measure than a rule change designed to improve Meloni’s chances of staying in power.¹² Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein and other opposition figures have signalled that they will contest the law politically and legally.²³

The expected Constitutional Court challenge is likely to focus first on the majority bonus. Critics argue that awarding a guaranteed majority to a coalition with just over 42% of the vote risks over-amplifying the winner and weakening proportional representation.¹⁷ AP noted that opponents see a potential conflict with previous court rulings that struck down parts of earlier electoral laws.¹

A second line of challenge concerns the Senate. El País reported that critics see the national allocation of bonus Senate seats as vulnerable because Italy’s constitution says the Senate is elected on a regional basis.⁴ If the court accepts that argument, it could force parliament to rewrite one of the law’s central mechanisms.

A third issue is the requirement that coalitions name a candidate for prime minister before the election.⁷ Opponents argue that this resembles a backdoor version of Meloni’s broader “premierato” ambition — strengthening the prime minister’s mandate — even though Italy’s president formally appoints the head of government after consultations and after testing parliamentary support.⁴⁷

The opposition is also targeting provisions that raise hurdles for new parties, including higher signature requirements that El País reported could require 450,000 signatures nationwide and allow collection only on paper.⁴ Critics say that could disadvantage newer movements and restrict political participation.

A procedural victory after reform setbacks

The final vote also tested Meloni’s control over her coalition. The measure followed confidence votes, including a third confidence vote on Article 3 that passed 228 to 144, according to Adnkronos and ANSA English.⁵⁷ The Chamber’s official WebTV schedule listed the October 8 sitting as “AULA, Seduta 723 - Legge elettorale, approvazione definitiva,” confirming the proceeding and timing.⁶

The government’s use of confidence votes underlined the stakes. It helped prevent amendments and signalled that defeat would have been a major blow to the executive. Adnkronos reported that Meloni said she was calm ahead of the secret ballot, while the opposition promised a fight.⁵

The passage matters because Meloni has not won every institutional battle. AP noted that voters earlier this year rejected her proposed justice-system overhaul in a constitutional referendum.¹ The electoral law therefore gives her a tangible reform success, but not one insulated from judicial or political backlash.

Does it make an early election more likely?

The law does not automatically trigger an early election, but it may increase the strategic value of one. El País reported that the reform makes it more realistic that elections currently expected in October 2027 could be brought forward to the spring, especially if legal objections are resolved quickly enough for the government to adjust the law if needed.⁴

Meloni has incentives to move before the political environment worsens. Reuters reported that her coalition is facing pressure from a new far-right formation, Roberto Vannacci’s National Future, which could draw votes away from the governing bloc.³ AP similarly noted concerns inside the right that Vannacci’s party could make it harder for Meloni’s alliance to reach the 42% threshold.¹

That dynamic cuts both ways. If the right consolidates before a vote, the new system could magnify a victory. If it splinters, the same threshold could deny Meloni the bonus and produce the fragmented proportional outcome the reform was meant to prevent. El País reported that National Future was polling around 8%, enough to complicate the governing bloc’s arithmetic if it remains outside the coalition.⁴

The law also puts immediate pressure on the opposition. The Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement have struggled to agree on leadership and strategy; requiring a named prime-ministerial candidate may force them into primaries or another binding selection process sooner than planned.¹⁴ In that sense, the reform is both an electoral mechanism and a political wedge.

The next test is legitimacy

Meloni has secured the parliamentary passage she wanted. The next question is whether the opposition can recast that win as an abuse of incumbency — and whether the Constitutional Court finds enough substance in the objections to force revisions before the next vote.

If the court upholds the law, Meloni will enter the campaign with a system designed to reward disciplined coalitions and punish divided ones. If judges strike down key provisions, the government may face a compressed timetable to repair the law, while opponents argue that the premier tried to rewrite the rules for partisan advantage.

That makes the overhaul more than a technical reform. It is now at the centre of Italy’s next political contest: whether stability can be sold as democratic clarity, or whether the opposition can portray it as a majority bonus for a government trying to extend its rule.