Ukraine and Russia widen drone war as civilians and refineries come under fire

Kyiv hit again as attacks continue

In Kyiv, officials reported repeated drone alerts from Sept. 26 into Sept. 27, along with fires and damage in several districts. Residential and non-residential buildings were hit or damaged by debris, public transport was disrupted, and assistance centers were opened for residents whose homes were damaged.²

Kyiv city authorities said air defenses were active on the evening of Sept. 26. They later reported a drone impact on a warehouse in Solomianskyi district and a hit on a non-residential building in Shevchenkivskyi district on Sept. 27.² Officials also said several people were injured in Shevchenkivskyi district, including a woman and two 16-year-olds. Public transport was temporarily disrupted by air threats and damage to overhead lines.²

AP reported that one man was found dead after a Russian drone hit a non-residential building in Kyiv overnight. Later Sunday, Russian drone strikes killed one person and wounded at least five on the outskirts of Kyiv, including in Vyshneve, according to local officials cited by AP.¹

Russia also attacked the southern Odesa region overnight into Sunday, killing one person and injuring two, according to the regional military administration cited by AP.¹ Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia struck a Kyiv data center twice Sunday morning, injuring two children and an adult. Russia’s Defense Ministry said the site provided internet services to Ukraine’s armed forces.¹

Drone barrages grow more persistent

The Sept. 27 attacks followed another heavy night of Russian drone activity. The Kyiv Independent, citing Ukrainian officials, reported that Russian attacks killed six people and injured 45 across Ukraine as Kyiv faced a second day of strikes. It said Russia launched 173 drones overnight, 134 of which were intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses, with strikes recorded at 19 locations.³

Euronews also reported at least six deaths over a 24-hour period in Russian strikes across Ukraine, including casualties in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Kherson and Sumy. It cited the same Ukrainian Air Force figure of 173 Russian drones launched overnight.⁶

Zelenskyy has described the drone threat as an industrial-scale challenge. In a Sept. 26 address, he said Ukraine had identified interceptor systems that could become a main defense against Russia’s jet-powered Shahed-type campaign. He also said Russia planned to spend $12 billion on jet-powered drones and loitering munitions, and linked the evolving Russian campaign to attacks on communications and data-center infrastructure.⁴

The Institute for the Study of War and Critical Threats Project assessed that Russia’s long-range strike campaign fits into a possible winter theory of victory, including the use of jet-powered Geran-type drones and repeated pressure on Ukrainian infrastructure.⁵ That assessment is consistent with the pattern around Kyiv: frequent alerts, layered drone waves, strikes on dual-use or civilian-adjacent infrastructure, and damage that disrupts daily urban systems even when most drones are intercepted.

Ukraine expands pressure on Russian energy and logistics

Ukraine, meanwhile, is extending its deep-strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and defense-linked industry. Ukrainian forces struck the Ilsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region overnight Sept. 25-26, according to Ukraine’s General Staff and reports cited by Bloomberg through Investing.com.⁸ The refinery has a design capacity of roughly 6.6 million tons a year. Russian regional authorities said drone attacks affected two facilities in Krasnodar, killing three people and injuring two.⁸

ISW reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Ilsky refinery near Ilsky, Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian sources said the attack hit primary processing units and an oil tank farm, forcing operations to stop.⁵ ISW also reported Ukrainian strikes on other targets, including military-industrial and logistics-linked sites in Rostov and Belgorod oblasts.⁵

Russia has responded with large interception claims. Interfax, citing the Russian Defense Ministry, reported that Russian forces said they downed 1,222 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over 24 hours and struck transport infrastructure, drone-production workshops and storage sites used by Ukrainian forces.⁷ Bloomberg’s report via Investing.com separately said Russia claimed it intercepted and destroyed 645 Ukrainian drones overnight, while also saying it attacked a Kyiv data-processing center, a Black Sea dry cargo vessel and targets around Odesa.⁸

Those figures could not be independently verified, and both sides routinely present air-defense and strike results in ways that serve operational messaging. Still, the scale of the claims — hundreds of drones in a single night or day — illustrates the production, launch capacity and air-defense strain now shaping the war.

Civilian risk expands with the target set

The widening drone war is no longer limited to air bases, ammunition depots or front-line logistics. The latest attacks affected Kyiv neighborhoods, Odesa, transport links, data infrastructure and industrial facilities. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries also carry risks for workers and nearby communities, as well as energy markets.¹²⁸

AFP, in a roundup carried by Dawn, reported that Russian and Ukrainian strikes killed at least 16 people over 24 hours, underscoring the human cost of the accelerating exchange.⁹ The same pattern has appeared repeatedly through September: Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, followed by Ukrainian strikes on refineries, military-industrial plants and logistics nodes inside Russia or occupied territory.

The military logic is clear. Russia is trying to degrade Ukraine’s air defense, energy resilience, communications networks and public morale ahead of colder months. Ukraine is trying to offset Russia’s advantages in missiles, aircraft and manpower by using long-range drones and missiles to hit fuel production, supply chains and defense production deeper inside Russia.⁵

The strategic risk is also growing. Sustained reciprocal strikes make escalation harder to contain, especially when drones pass near civilian airspace, hit urban infrastructure or damage energy assets with regional economic significance. They also complicate European messaging: calls for de-escalation are being made while both sides increase the tempo and reach of strikes.

Europe’s de-escalation problem

The Sept. 27 attacks followed Moscow’s rejection of German calls to ease tensions with NATO. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed a rare meeting with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul at the U.N. General Assembly, saying the German side had merely repeated its official condemnation of Russia, AP reported.¹

The exchange highlights Europe’s limited leverage over a battlefield dynamic increasingly driven by drone production rates, air-defense stockpiles and infrastructure vulnerability. Even when front lines move slowly, long-range strikes allow both sides to impose costs far from the trenches.

For security planners, the key indicator is not only the number of drones launched or intercepted on a given night. It is the normalization of large-scale, recurring strike packages against cities, refineries, data infrastructure and logistics systems. That means civilian exposure is likely to remain high even far from the front, and diplomatic efforts to slow the war will have to contend with an expanding, industrialized drone campaign on both sides.